Iran and the global energy security crisis: escalating threats and international repercussions

The Iranian regime currently constitutes one of the most prominent sources of direct threat to global security, particularly in the field of energy, which represents the backbone of the international economy.

The gravity of this threat is evident in Iran’s behavior in the Arabian Gulf region, specifically in the Strait of Hormuz, which is considered one of the most critical strategic chokepoints in the world.

First, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz lies in its role as a vital artery for global energy transportation. More than 21 million barrels of oil pass through it daily approximately 20% of global consumption in addition to around 30% of global liquefied natural gas exports. About 11% of global trade also transits through the strait, making any disruption there have immediate and profound effects on the global economy.

In this context, Iran has used this passage as a geopolitical pressure tool, repeatedly threatening to close it. In 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even confirmed its complete closure, which would disrupt nearly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies.

Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and target energy facilities pose a serious danger to global energy security, as they could lead to paralysis in supply chains and sharp increases in oil and gas prices.

Tehran uses these threats as a “pressure card” in response to geopolitical tensions and sanctions, placing the global economy under a highly sensitive test.

A number of countries around the world have taken firm measures to confront the repercussions of the energy crisis and rising prices resulting from the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

These steps highlight how geography can be transformed into a lethal weapon in the hands of political actors when strategic locations are leveraged to serve political and military objectives.

Second, these threats have materialized in the current crisis (2026), where military escalation linked to Iran has disrupted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing widespread disturbance in shipping, the detention of thousands of sailors, and disruptions to global supply chains.

Recent estimates indicate that the closure or partial disruption has resulted in the loss of between 12 to 15 million barrels per day in supplies about 15% of global supply. Consequently, oil prices have risen to approximately $120 per barrel, with expectations of exceeding $150 if the crisis continues.

The manifestations of the Iranian threat to global energy security are numerous and can be summarized in several key points. Foremost among them is the risk of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran has suggested the possibility of halting energy flows “with a single signal” if its infrastructure comes under attack.

These threats also include the obstruction of maritime navigation, which has already been reflected in slower shipping movement and increased insurance and transportation costs.

Moreover, the risk extends to targeting energy infrastructure, including oil and gas facilities, which could lead to production stoppages and increased pressure on global markets.

The geographical scope of these threats is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz alone but extends to include the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, thereby increasing the likelihood of a regional energy crisis with global repercussions.

Third, the repercussions have not been limited to the energy market but have extended to vital industrial sectors, as tensions have led to higher fuel prices and shortages in certain industrial goods, along with concerns about catastrophic impacts on petrochemical industries.

The “helium crisis” has also emerged as an indirect consequence, as expectations of supply shortages have driven prices upward, threatening strategic industries such as semiconductors.

Fourth, these developments have directly impacted the global economy, with markets entering a state of severe tension described as a “game of chicken,” amid international efforts to contain the crisis and ensure the continued flow of energy.

At the same time, international institutions have warned of the risks of oil stockpiling and its impact on price stability, in addition to the potential slowdown in global trade growth and rising inflation rates.

Fifth, the danger of this threat is amplified by the world’s heavy reliance on Gulf oil, despite efforts to diversify energy sources. Even with expectations of an increase in global supply by about 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026, these increases remain insufficient to compensate for any major disruption in vital transit routes. This underscores the continued fragility of global energy security in the face of any escalation in the region.

Recent facts and figures demonstrate that the Iranian regime is not merely a regional actor but a factor threatening global stability, particularly in the energy sector. Its policies based on threatening to close maritime passages, targeting infrastructure, and using energy as a political weapon make it a persistent source of uncertainty in the international economy and necessitate collective international action to ensure global energy security and market stability.