“The Middle power moment”: How did the UAE redraw Its regional strategy?

In an in-depth analytical reading published in the Pakistani newspaper “The Tribune,” Pakistani academic and writer Dr. Muhammad Ali Ehsan highlighted the fundamental transformation in the UAE’s foreign policy, considering that the recent war with Iran was not merely a security test, but rather a pivotal moment for assessing the UAE’s rise as an influential “middle power” in the regional order.

From a “State Seeking Protection” to a “Strategic Player” Ehsan believes that over the past decade, the UAE has successfully transitioned from a “small state seeking protection” strategy to an ambitious strategy aimed at shaping its strategic environment.

The writer points out that the “Abraham Accords” in 2020 represented a major turning point, as they strengthened Abu Dhabi’s vision of itself as a player whose role is not limited to the traditional Gulf framework, but extends to broader international partnerships.

According to the article, the UAE’s growing influence is based not only on traditional military power, but also on “soft and economic power,” represented by control over global trade routes, supply chains, and logistics services.

This approach explains the UAE’s strategic expansion in the ports of the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, and East Africa, where Abu Dhabi considers the security of these regions a direct extension of its national security, given its economy’s dependence on the stability of shipping and energy routes.

War and Changing Priorities The writer reveals that the recent war with Iran exposed the vulnerability of the global economy to threats targeting supply chains, prompting the UAE to focus on restoring stability and reopening maritime corridors as a priority that transcends ideological considerations or traditional conflicts.

Ehsan points out that current UAE policy is based on “diversifying partnerships” and avoiding dependence on a single international power; it maintains close relations with the United States while expanding the scope of its cooperation with China, Russia, India, and Pakistan.

The UAE-Pakistan Model: The Partnership of the Future The article highlights UAE-Pakistan relations as a model of this strategic approach; the relationship is no longer limited to traditional financial support, but has evolved into a strategic partnership that includes investment in infrastructure, energy, and security cooperation.

Ehsan emphasizes that Pakistan’s importance to the UAE stems from its geographic position as a strategic link between the Gulf, Central Asia, and South Asia, making it a fundamental pillar in Abu Dhabi’s vision for global trade connectivity.

The article concludes that, thanks to this development model, the UAE no longer acts as a Gulf state dependent on others, but rather as a middle power seeking to shape the features of its strategic environment by itself. Nevertheless, Dr. Ehsan stresses that the real test facing Abu Dhabi in the coming years lies in its ability to manage its influence and network of international partnerships wisely, without raising the concerns of neighboring countries or being drawn into regional rivalries that drain its resources, thereby proving that economic development and connectivity are the most sustainable tools for building power and influence in today’s world.