Shadow weapon: how Iran leverages infrastructure targeting to reshape regional power balances

Targeting infrastructure has emerged as one of the most prominent non-conventional pressure tools developed by Iran in the context of its regional and international conflicts.

This approach blends indirect military action, cyber warfare, and the use of proxy militias, with the aim of achieving strategic gains without sliding into a full-scale confrontation.

This strategy derives its significance from its ability to generate wide-ranging economic and security impacts at relatively low cost, while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability or political ambiguity.

This, in turn, grants Iranian decision-makers flexibility to escalate or de-escalate depending on circumstances.

The roots of this approach date back to the aftermath of the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), when Tehran recognized the limitations of its capacity to confront its adversaries through direct military means, particularly in light of the technological and military superiority of the United States and its regional allies.

With the evolution of economic sanctions especially after 2010, and their intensification following the United States’ withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018 pressure on regional and international infrastructure became a means to offset the imbalance in the balance of power.

In this context, a range of tools has emerged, including attacks on energy facilities, threats to vital maritime corridors, and cyber operations targeting critical sectors such as electricity, water, and transportation.

This strategy is most clearly manifested in attacks on the energy sector, the backbone of Gulf and global economies.

In September 2019, the attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais facilities in Saudi Arabia disrupted approximately 5.7 million barrels per day of oil production nearly 5 percent of global supply at the time, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency.

Although Yemen’s Houthi group claimed responsibility, Western intelligence reports pointed to direct or indirect Iranian involvement.

Such operations do not merely target physical infrastructure; they also undermine confidence in market stability.

This was reflected in oil prices rising by around 15 percent in a single day the largest daily increase in decades.

Alongside the military dimension, cyberattacks play an increasingly significant role in this strategy.

Recent years have witnessed an escalation in the targeting of industrial control systems, with attempts detected to breach water and electricity facilities in multiple countries.

These operations rely on disrupting services or threatening to do so, thereby creating political pressure without resorting to conventional force.

Reports by international cybersecurity firms indicate that groups linked to Iran have significantly intensified their cyber activities since 2020, targeting vital sectors in the Middle East, Europe, and North America.

Maritime corridors also constitute a central component of this strategy, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of global oil trade passes.

During 2019, a series of incidents were recorded, including the seizure of oil tankers and attacks on commercial vessels, leading to increased insurance and shipping costs.

In addition, Tehran has carried out attacks targeting airports and critical oil-related sites in Gulf Cooperation Council countries from 2025 to the present.

These actions are not solely aimed at disrupting supplies, but also at sending political messages that any economic pressure on Iran can be countered by threatening global energy flows.

The implementation of this strategy relies heavily on a network of non-state actors, such as the Houthi group in Yemen, certain armed factions in Iraq, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This model provides Tehran with a strategic advantage by reducing direct risks, as it can support these entities logistically and technically without formally claiming responsibility.

At the same time, this approach grants these groups greater influence within their local arenas, further complicating the regional security landscape.

This approach carries wide-ranging economic and security repercussions.

Economically, targeting infrastructure leads to sharp market volatility, higher energy costs, and increased investment risks in affected regions.

World Bank data indicate that any major disruption in oil supplies can raise global prices by between 10 and 20 percent in the short term, directly impacting inflation rates and economic growth worldwide.

On the security front, such attacks heighten the risk of military escalation, particularly given the difficulty of accurately attributing responsibility in some cases.

Nevertheless, this strategy is not without risks for Iran itself.

Excessive escalation could provoke direct military responses or additional sanctions, as has occurred in previous periods.

Moreover, reliance on proxies can sometimes slip out of control, as these groups may take escalatory decisions that do not fully align with Iranian calculations.

Additionally, the development of cyber defense capabilities among targeted states is gradually reducing the effectiveness of such attacks.

International assessments of this strategy vary.

Some Western countries view infrastructure targeting as a direct threat to international security that requires firm deterrence, whether through sanctions or an enhanced military presence.

Others argue that these actions are a response to the economic and political pressures imposed on Iran, calling for addressing the root causes of tension rather than relying solely on security measures.

This divergence reflects the complexity of the landscape, where geopolitical considerations intersect with economic interests.

In light of current dynamics, it is likely that Iran will continue to employ infrastructure targeting as a pressure tool, while advancing its capabilities to encompass more complex domains such as sophisticated cyberattacks and hybrid warfare.

Iran’s strategy of targeting infrastructure represents a model of non-conventional warfare in the twenty-first century, in which multiple tools are deployed to achieve an impact disproportionate to the resources used.

Despite its effectiveness in securing tactical gains, it carries inherent risks of escalation that may prove difficult to contain, making it a double-edged sword in an increasingly complex regional and international environment.