Tehran’s foreign policy has been one of the most prominent factors of tension and instability in the Middle East.
Over more than four decades, Tehran’s influence has not been confined to its geographical borders; rather, it has extended through a broad network of military, security, and political alliances that have contributed to reshaping regional balances of power and have drawn a number of countries into prolonged cycles of internal conflict and geopolitical competition.
While the Iranian authorities affirm that their foreign policy aims to protect national security and confront external threats, many countries in the region and Western powers believe that this policy has directly contributed to fueling conflicts and weakening the stability of a number of Arab states.
The roots of this controversy go back to Tehran’s adoption of the principle of “exporting the revolution,” a concept that was reflected in the nature of its regional relations.
During the following decades, Iranian influence expanded across several Arab arenas, benefiting from the political transformations and wars that the region witnessed.
With the outbreak of the war in Iraq after 2003, followed by the Syrian war in 2011 and the successive crises in Yemen and Lebanon, Iran became a central player in security and political issues that extended beyond its national borders.
Estimates by international research institutions indicate that Iran spent billions of dollars over the past two decades to support its regional allies.
Reports issued by the U.S. Department of State and Western research centers estimated that Iranian support for the Syrian regime during the years of war exceeded tens of billions of dollars, whether through direct financing or military and logistical support.
Tehran also continues to provide political and military support to armed groups in several countries, which it considers part of its forward defense strategy, while other countries regard it as direct interference in their internal affairs.
In Iraq, the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 represented a strategic turning point for Iran. Tehran succeeded in building extensive relations with political forces and armed factions that later became part of Iraq’s security and political landscape.
Although some of these forces played an important role in confronting the “Islamic State” organization between 2014 and 2017, the continued presence of armed groups linked to Iran outside the traditional framework of the state has remained the subject of domestic and international criticism because of its impact on the sovereignty of Iraqi institutions and on the country’s political balances.
In Syria, Iranian intervention was one of the most important factors that helped Bashar al-Assad’s regime endure throughout the years of war.
Tehran deployed thousands of advisers and affiliated personnel to the Syrian arena, in addition to providing extensive financial and military support, However, this role turned Syrian territory into an open arena for regional and international confrontations, including repeated Israeli strikes targeting sites linked to Iran, which contributed to prolonging the state of security instability.
In Lebanon, the debate surrounding the Iranian role is primarily linked to Tehran’s support for Hezbollah, which is considered one of the most prominent political and military actors in the country. While its supporters see it as a deterrent force against Israel, its opponents argue that its possession of military capabilities independent of Lebanese state institutions has contributed to complicating the political and security landscape and has affected the state’s ability to make independent sovereign decisions.
These debates intensified with the unprecedented economic crisis that Lebanon has experienced since 2019, which led to an economic contraction exceeding 38% within a few years, according to World Bank data.
In Yemen, the conflict has become one of the most complex wars in the world. The United Nations and Western and regional countries accuse Iran of providing various forms of military and technical support to the Houthi movement, an allegation that Tehran denies or downplays.
The continuation of the war has contributed to creating a large-scale humanitarian crisis, with United Nations estimates indicating that hundreds of thousands of people have been directly or indirectly affected by the conflict since its outbreak in 2014.
The repercussions of Iran’s regional policy extend beyond the military sphere to include broad economic dimensions. The ongoing state of tension in the Arabian Gulf, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes, has increased geopolitical risks affecting global energy markets.
Attacks and maritime tensions over recent years have also contributed to higher insurance and shipping costs, which has been reflected in international trade and energy prices.
In contrast, Iran presents a different narrative, arguing that its regional presence emerged in response to security vacuums created by wars and foreign interventions in the region.
The Iranian leadership asserts that its support for its allies is aimed at confronting extremist organizations and strengthening what it calls the “Axis of Resistance.”
Iranian officials cite the role of Tehran-backed factions in confronting the “Islamic State” organization as evidence of the importance of this approach. However, critics of this policy argue that short-term security gains have been accompanied by a long-term strategic cost manifested in increased regional polarization and deeper sectarian and political divisions.
On the international level, these policies have affected Iran’s relationship with the international community. Tehran has been subjected to a series of U.S. and international economic sanctions targeting vital sectors of its economy, including energy and the financial sector.
According to data from international financial institutions, the Iranian economy has faced high inflation rates in recent years, exceeding 50% during certain periods, alongside a decline in the value of the national currency and slower growth rates, factors that have directly affected living standards within the country.
Recent developments indicate that the region continues to face a fundamental dilemma concerning how to achieve a balance between the competing security interests of regional states. The continuation of open conflicts and the presence of armed actors outside official state frameworks increase the likelihood of escalation and limit opportunities to build a stable security system.
At the same time, any substantial change in Iran’s regional behavior will remain linked to a complex set of internal and external factors, including the nature of Iran’s political system, relations with the United States, and broader regional balances.
The regional experience over the past four decades shows that Iranian policies have been a major factor in many of the crises and conflicts witnessed in the Middle East, whether through direct interventions or through support for local allies in multiple countries.
