By Mohim Baloch (Sarkhosh)
Standfirst (Summary):
After a century of forced Persianization and four decades of theocratic rule, Iran is on the brink of implosion. As the Islamic Republic faces economic collapse and the rise of national movements, the country stands before a stark choice: build a truly multinational democratic state or fragment into several independent nations.
A Nation at the Edge
Iran stands today at one of the most decisive crossroads in its modern history. After more than four decades of repression, corruption, economic decline, and international isolation, the Islamic Republic has reached a point of no return. The political structure that emerged a century ago under Reza Shah built on power centralization, Persian ethnic supremacy, and the denial of national diversity is now unraveling.
The many nations within Iran are no longer willing to live under a regime that denies their identities and fundamental rights.
A Century of Forced Homogenization
Since the 1920s, successive Iranian regimes have pursued a project of cultural and political homogenization an effort to transform a multiethnic land into a monolithic Persian state. Under Reza Shah, regions such as Balochistan, Kurdistan, Arabistan (Khuzestan), Turkmen Sahara, Azerbaijan, and Luristan were subjugated to Tehran’s authority through military force.
Non-Persian languages were banned, native cultures humiliated, and national histories rewritten to fit a Persian-centric narrative. The notion of a “united Iranian nation” served as ideological cover for Persian dominance, while any expression of linguistic or cultural difference was labeled “separatism” and crushed. The education system and media became tools of Persianization erasing the country’s true multinational character.
The Islamic Republic: Continuity Under a Religious Mask
The 1979 revolution, which many hoped would bring freedom and equality, merely replaced one authoritarian order with another. Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Republic rebranded the same centralized power structure under a religious guise.
By fusing Persian nationalism with Shiite theocracy, it institutionalized both ethnic and sectarian discrimination. Baloch, Kurds, Arabs, Turks, and Turkmens have long lived under double oppression ethnic and religious. Sunni minorities, in particular, have been systematically excluded from political, military, and economic power.
A Collapsing Economy and a Kleptocratic Elite
Iran’s economy today teeters on the brink of collapse. Runaway inflation, mass unemployment, and widespread poverty have created despair across the country. The banking system is effectively bankrupt, and the rial has become one of the weakest currencies in the world.
International sanctions—fueled by Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and regional interventions have deepened isolation. Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guard and religious foundations dominate a mafia-like economy. Iran’s system is a textbook case of religious kleptocracy: national wealth, especially from non-Persian regions, is looted while local populations are kept impoverished.
Reformists have done little to change this reality. From Khatami to Rouhani, every so-called reformist operated within the limits of preserving the regime. In a system based on the absolute rule of a cleric, the idea of reform is meaningless.
Isolation Abroad, Repression at Home
Internationally, Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs, coupled with its interference across the Middle East, have driven Iran into near-total isolation. The 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) under U.S. President Obama offered a fleeting hope of normalization, but the Islamic Republic used it merely as a tactical pause. The result: renewed sanctions, economic collapse, and the deepening crisis of legitimacy.
At the same time, confrontation with Israel has intensified. Israeli strikes on IRGC positions in Syria and constant threats against Iran’s nuclear facilities have moved the conflict beyond rhetoric.
If Israel were to launch a new, large-scale assault on Iran’s military and nuclear sites, two outcomes are conceivable: either the regime’s weakness would be exposed, accelerating its collapse or the leadership would exploit the external threat to intensify internal repression and ignite Persian nationalist fears of “national disintegration.”
Yet with corruption rampant and public anger at boiling point, any external war could swiftly trigger the regime’s downfall especially if it coincides with mass uprisings.
Human Rights: A Bleak Record
Iran’s human rights record remains among the worst in the world. Mass executions, torture, sexual violence in prisons, gender and religious discrimination, and the killing of protesters are well-documented realities.
In Balochistan, Kurdistan, Ahwaz, and other regions, civilians have repeatedly been massacred by security forces. Activists, journalists, teachers, women, and workers languish in prisons without fair trial. Beyond its borders, the regime continues to assassinate opponents from Shapour Bakhtiar and Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou to Habib Asyoud and numerous Baloch and Kurdish dissidents.
Through hostage-taking of dual nationals and blackmailing Western governments, Tehran has exposed itself as a transnational mafia state.
After the Islamic Republic: Three Possible Paths
As the economic collapse deepens, political legitimacy evaporates, and national movements strengthen, Iran’s future could follow three possible paths:
1. Secession and independence, if the regime continues to deny the multinational reality of the country and the right of self-determination for non-Persian nations.
2. A federal or confederal system, if the non-Persian nations through referendums choose to remain within a restructured Iran based on equality of nations and languages.
3. Continued Persian-centric authoritarianism, leading ultimately to total disintegration.
From Reza Shah’s “Aryan nationalism” to Khamenei’s theocracy, Iran’s politics have always rested on power concentration and the erasure of nations. But today that order is collapsing not under foreign attack, but under the pressure of the non-Persian nations who have been treated as internal colonies for nearly a century.
A meaningful future for Iran will only be possible if it becomes a genuinely multinational, confederalor at least ethnolinguistic federal democratic state. Yet in the short term, such transformation seems unlikely. The disintegration and independence of nations may no longer be a threat, but an unavoidable destiny.
A civil war and the Balkanization of Iran appear more probable than the emergence of a democratic federation.
A Historic Crossroads
Iran stands before a historic choice: it will either build an equal home for all its nations or descend into ruins of war, poverty, and fragmentation, giving rise to independent states such as Balochistan, Kurdistan, South Azerbaijan, Arabistan (Ahwaz), Luristan, and Farsestan.
The years 2025 and 2026 will be decisive not only for Iran but for the entire Middle East, where colonial-era borders are increasingly seen as artificial and unsustainable. What lies ahead will not just reshape Iran it could redefine the entire postcolonial map of the region.
Author Bio
Mohim Baloch (Sarkhosh) is the chairman of the Balochistan Solidarity Party and a political analyst focusing on nationalism, federalism, and the rights of oppressed nations in Iran. He advocates for the right of self-determination of these nations so that they may freely choose their own political future in accordance with international conventions and the principles of human rights.
Suggested Tags
Iran, Balochistan, Federalism, Human Rights, Middle East, National Movements, Islamic Republic, Political Collapse, Ethnic Minorities, Persian Nationalism
