The future of Ahwaz and its ability to overcome Iranian control
In light of these conditions, which Ahvaz and the Ahwazi people live in, and the regional and international conflict environment that Iran is experiencing at this stage, the question arises about the future of the region, and about its ability to overcome Iranian tendencies to control it and keep it within the Iranian state.
The fact of the matter is that the Ahwazi people are among the most peoples who seek to escape from the center, and unite with the Arab nationalism that exists behind the borders in neighboring countries, especially the Gulf countries, due to several reasons, including the presence of many points in common with the neighboring countries of the Ahwazi region, the most important of which is race, and the suffering experienced by the Ahwazi people in light of their presence within the framework of the Iranian state occupying Ahwaz, as well as the two regional and international conflict environments surrounding Iran, and the interventionist policies of the Iranian republic that have depleted the state’s economic potential and distracted it from internal development; especially in Ahwaz. The latter two factors have weakened the capabilities of the central state, and increased the aspirations of the Ahwazi people and their efforts to liberate themselves from the power of the Persian state, according to the year of Iranian history, which always assumes that if the central state is weakened, the Peoples ‘ aspiration for liberation has increased.
However, Iran is trying to overcome these factors and limit the ambitions of the occupied people, including the Ahwazi people, by provoking conflict between these minorities, which has greatly benefited the Persian state in earlier times. Hence, the Iranian republic is now trying to exacerbate tensions between the components of the people in Ahvaz, exploit the Sunni–Shiite sectarian dispute, try to blow it up along the lines of Iran’s strategy in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and stir up national differences between the Arab people in Ahvaz and other peoples such as the Baluch, especially in the eastern and southern provinces, where these two groups live close to each other.
What Tehran is betting on, currently, is the state of disintegration suffered by the Ahvaz, which has not reached a stage that would change the equation on the ground, which makes it vulnerable to the influence of the Iranian authorities.
The Ahwazi forces should take advantage of the weakening of the central state that will result from the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran, which may increase their chances of achieving their goals, as the conflict environment with the United States of America may provide an opportunity for the Arab people in Ahwazi to move to a new stage of the struggle against the Iranian occupation.
