The Collapse of the Iranian Regime

Dr. Aref Al-Kaabi
President of the Executive Committee of the State of Ahwaz

The conference attended by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian witnessed chaos and infighting among the attendees, who were divided between supporters and opponents of the regime. Pezeshkian’s statements sparked widespread controversy, as he launched strong and aggressive attacks against key figures of the regime—of which he is a part—specifically targeting officials of the Revolutionary Guard, the Council, the entourage of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the economic institutions linked to the Revolutionary Guard. He accused them of corruption and theft.
These statements triggered a wave of sharp criticism against him within the conference hall, prompting a prominent cleric to respond by accusing Pezeshkian of deception, lying, and hypocrisy.
This response ignited a heated exchange among the attendees, turning the conference into a verbal battlefield. The session transformed into a courtroom where the actions of the regime’s pillars—leading to Iran’s dire conditions under the rule of the mullahs—were scrutinized.
The verbal clashes and mutual accusations were not merely expressions of political disagreements but also reflected the deep political crisis currently facing the Iranian regime.
This public altercation made it clear that Iran is experiencing significant internal tensions between different factions of the regime. The discussions at the conference lacked coordination and consensus, characterized instead by a complete disconnect between the various wings. Each faction blamed the other for failures in economic, political, and diplomatic spheres.
The power struggle among these factions has become increasingly visible to the public, indicating that disagreements are no longer confined to closed political circles but have spilled into the open. The tension is particularly evident between the popularly elected president and the officials appointed by the Revolutionary Guard and Khamenei’s office.
These developments reveal a deep crisis within the Iranian regime, highlighting the growing divide between the aspirations of the Iranian people and the desires of the ruling religious establishment.
The conference also exposed the attempts by both hardliners and reformists to evade responsibility, as each side sought to shift the blame onto the other. This blame game only exacerbates the political and economic crisis gripping the country.
As internal political tensions and factional conflicts continue to rise, Iran’s political and economic situation becomes increasingly complex. The new U.S. sanctions on the Iranian regime further intensify economic pressures on Iranian citizens and threaten to deepen the economic crisis managed by the Revolutionary Guard.

At the same time, the Revolutionary Guard’s military institution faces significant challenges in maintaining its power, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown in the state’s military and economic structures.
All these factors point to the possibility of a dramatic transformation in Iran’s near future. Political and economic deterioration could lead to internal unrest, potentially culminating in a widespread revolution against the ruling regime.
If such scenarios unfold, they could accelerate the collapse of the Iranian regime’s military and economic institutions and pave the way for a fundamental change in Iran’s political landscape—possibly leading to the end of the Safavid Shiite system controlling the country.
What we witnessed at this conference reflects the profound division within the Iranian regime and reveals an escalating political crisis that could result in the regime’s collapse if internal conflicts and economic challenges persist.
Should such a collapse occur, it could bring about significant regional changes. Iran might return to a period of internal peace, contributing to regional and global stability and security.